- FTSE 100 closes up 5 pts
- US indices nudge higher
- RBS and Schroders hit by broker downgrades
5.15pm : FTSE closes only a shade higher
FTSE 100 index came off its recent boil to close a tad higher on Tuesday as traders were spooked by fears of a no-deal Brexit.
The UK index of premier shares added nearly five points to 7,524, while the midcap FTSE 250, and more UK-focused index, plunged over 263 points to close at 21,657.
Yes, the 'B' word of course hasn't gone away after last week's landslide conservative win in the general election and Prime Minister Boris Johnson just sent a shiver through the financial markets.
He is keen to introduce legislation that will ensure the transition period will not be extended, which heightens the possibility of no-deal scenario.
"Boris Johnson has put an end to the party before it barely got started, with the PM deciding to raise the temperature in trade negotiations with the EU by ruling out any extension to the transitional period beyond 2020," noted Joshua Mahony, market analyst at online trading group IG.
"In a move that Johnson will hope will hasten and fast track trade negotiations, markets are well and truly aware that this move could come to the detriment of the UK-EU relationship."
The pound slipped 1.67% against the US dollar to stand at 1.3112.
"…with Johnson introducing yet another needless cliff-edge, he has dented hopes of a sentiment driven boost in economic activity which has in turn put an end to the recent recovery in UK markets," added the analyst.
Meanwhile, on Wall Street, the S&P 500 reached another record-high due to optimism on US, China trade and decent housing data.
3.45pm: FTSE 100 in holding pattern
As it has been for most of the day, the Footsie is in a holding pattern.
London's index of leading shares was down 8 points (0.1%) at 7,511, despite the heavily weighted resource stocks generally enjoying a good day – especially the oil giants Royal Dutch Shell (LON:RDSB) and BP PLC (LON:BP.), which were up 2.9% and 2.2% respectively.
At the other end of the Footsie leader-board, Royal Bank of Scotland was down 4.0% at 250.7p after Citigroup climbed onto the fence, abandoning its previous bullish stance.
In the US, the Dow Jones was up 61 points (0.2%) at 28,296 and the S&P 500 was 4 points (0.1%) firmer at 3,195.
2.15pm: US stocks to open a bit higher
US indices are set to open modestly higher in a few minutes' time.
The Dow Jones is seen opening at around 28,246, up 10points from last night's close, while the S&P 500 is expected to start at 3,196, up 5 points.
In the UK, the FTSE 100 is down 17 points (0.2%) at 7,502.
1.20pm: FTSE 100 dragged into the red by NMC Health and Unilever
Foreign exchange markets might not have taken Boris Johnson's plans for a fast Brexit well but the CBI seems on board.
“Business has had enough of uncertainty and shares the Prime Ministers ambition for a fast EU trade deal. With only a year to go, we are committed to working with the government to secure an ambitious deal that supports all sectors of the economy. Every step in the negotiations will have an impact on jobs, firms and communities,” said Carolyn Fairbairn, the director-general of the pressure group.
“Speed and ambition can go hand in hand if the right approach is taken. Theres no time to lose, with a top priority being to build a best-in-class trade architecture, with business round the table, enabling EU trade talks to begin early in the new year. Firms stand ready to bring the evidence needed from factories and boardrooms across the UK to enable a good trade deal to be agreed as quickly as possible,” she added.
The FTSE 100 was down 9 points (0.1%) at 7,510 thanks largely to healthcare operator NMC Health seeing a quarter of its value wiped out as short sellers got their teeth into the stock and Unilever diving 6.1% after a gloomy trading update.
Logistics firm Bunzl PLC (LON:BNZL) also failed to please with its trading statement; the shares shed 1% after the company said overall trading this year has been consistent with the slowing underlying revenue growth indicated in previous announcements.
— Proactive (@proactive_UK) December 17, 2019
12.30pm: NMC Health added to the Muddy Waters songbook
Hedge fund Muddy Waters has got its teeth into NMC, wiping out a quarter of the stock's value.
"We have serious doubts about the company's financial statements, including its asset values, cash balance, reported profits, and reported debt levels," Muddy Water said, in a statement revealing its short position in NMC.
Selling short is the practice of selling shares you do not own in a company in the expectation of buying them back cheaper later.
$NMC.LN cash balances show 2 red flags that indicate they could be materially overstated. Margins appear “too good to be true”, which we believe is due in part to under-reporting reimbursement rejection rates. https://t.co/9zyc6teLda
— MuddyWatersResearch (@muddywatersre) December 17, 2019
Shares in Burford were down 3.4% in lunchtime trading.
The FTSE 100 was down 9 points (0.1%) at 7,510
11.15am: FTSE 100 idling; Boeing suppliers hit by 737 Max decision
The UK jobs data suggests the Bank of England will hold fire on rate cuts for the time being, according to ING Economics.
This morning's jobs and earnings data largely left the market unmoved, and the FTSE 100 remains little changed – down 6 points (0.1%) at 7,513 – as the effects of a slumping pound are offset by concerns over the possibility of Britain exiting the European Union at the end of 2020 without a deal being negotiated.
“For now the official jobs data doesn't look quite as bad as other hiring indicators have signalled but with Brexit uncertainty already making a comeback and investment set to remain low in 2020, hiring appetite is unlikely to improve significantly any time soon,” predicted James Smith, the economist covering developed markets at ING.
Smith reckons the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will hold off, for now, on cutting interest rates but that could change if the jobs market deteriorate further.
“There are undoubtedly early signs of weakness. Vacancy levels have consistently dropped through 2019. The latest Markit/RECS jobs report points to another fall in permanent placements, while some other recent PMIs [Purchasing Managers' Indices] have anecdotally indicated that some staff are not being replaced and in some cases, they're being made redundant.
“However, all of this is only partially reflected in the latest official figures. Jobs' growth grew by a modest, but positive, 24,000 in the three months to October. As we've seen in the past few readings, a lot of the weakness is concentrated in part-time and 18 to 24-year-old workers. This can be a fairly volatile part of the data and, once removed, the picture has been slightly less negative over recent months,” Smith said.
The FTSE 250, whose mid-cap constituents tend to benefit less from a weaker exchange rate, has been harder hit this morning than the FTSE 100 and is down 310 points (1.4%) at 21,611.
— Business Insider (@businessinsider) December 17, 2019
The number of people claiming unemployment benefits decreased by 13,000 to 1.28 million in the August-October quarter, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.
The UK employment rate was estimated at 76.2%, 0.4 percentage points higher than a year earlier but little changed on the previous quarter.
The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 3.8%, 0.3 percentage points lower than a year earlier but largely unchanged on the previous quarter.
Estimated annual growth in average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain slowed to 3.2% for total pay (including bonuses) and 3.5% for regular pay (excluding bonuses).
The ONS said the annual growth in total pay was weakened by unusually high bonus payments paid in October 2018 compared with more typical average bonus payments paid in October 2019.
In real terms (after adjusting for inflation), annual growth in total pay is estimated to be 1.5%, and annual growth in regular pay is estimated to be 1.8%.
There were an estimated 794,000 vacancies in the UK for September to November 2019, which was 20,000 fewer than in the preceding quarter and 59,000 fewer than a year earlier.
Traders largely shrugged their shoulders at the data, having bigger things on their mind (such as Boris Johnson's latest “Brexit or bust” pronouncement), and the FTSE 100 remained little changed.
9.40am: Sterling slams into reverse
The threat of a no-deal Brexit has resurfaced and ended the party mood in London.
Although sterling has fallen sharply against the dollar following prime minister Boris Johnson's pledge to rule out any extension to the Brexit deadline, this has not resulted in the usual boost for blue-chip equities.
Sterling was down by 1.39 cents at US$1.3196 against the US dollar but the FTSE 100 was more or less unchanged.
UK-focused banks were off the pace after the latest stress tests from the Bank of England.
The results, released after the close on Monday, showed that the UK banking system is “resilient to deep simultaneous recessions in the UK and global economies” and would be able to meet credit demand from UK business and consumers despite an economic crash, the central bank said.
8.40am: Pause for breath
Having advanced around 250 points in two days, the index of blue-chips paused for breath.
Nudging 15 points higher in the first 30 minutes it subsided back to register virtually zero change.
The major action was on the foreign exchange markets where PM Johnsons plan to exit the EU fully by 2020 pushed sterling below US$1.32 as traders became a little queasy about the prospect.
“That means no possible way to extend the transition period,” explained Neil Wilson, an analyst at Markets.com.
“I must confess to believing he wouldnt need to be so drastic, that a large majority offered the flexibility yet strength a government craves in deal-making.
“This sets up another cliff-edge and could create yet more months of uncertainty for investors just when we thought all was squared away.”
The big mover on the stock market was Unilever (LON:ULVR) after the consumer goods firm lowered its sales targets. The shares shed more than 5%.
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