Trade setup: Nifty has resistance at 100-DMA, to remain in a range

Indian stock market closed Calendar Year 2018 on expected lines, as the NSE benchmark Nifty opened on a positive note, but halted once again at its 100-DMA and retraced from there.

Despite buoyant undercurrent, the session remained dull and directionless, with the index settling with a negligible gain of 2.65 points or 0.02 per cent.

As we enter New Near on Tuesday, expect the market to again trade lacklustre. Even as we will have overnight US market clue to deal with, major global markets will remain shut on Tuesday. We expect a dull session with lower trading volumes.

Tuesday is likely to see the levels of 10,910 and 10,965 acting as immediate resistance area. Supports may come in at 10,835 and 10,780.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stood at 55,5323. It continued to remain neutral, showing no divergence against the price. The daily MACD remained bearish, as it traded below its signal line. A small black body emerged on the candles. In the present technical structure, it remains insignificant.

Pattern analysis revealed that the Nifty has managed to hang above the falling trendline pattern resistance area. However, the extension of the upmove has been stalled near the 100-DMA, which is at 10,908.

Overall, market is likely to have a rangebound session ahead. If we analyse the F&O data along with the open interest figures, the undercurrent seems intact and buoyant.

Though Nifty may continue to resist 100-DMA and consolidate in a narrow range, there are chances that eventually this level may be taken out and market extends its upmove.

We recommend continuing to use dips to make select purchases and adopt a highly stock-specific view. Until the 100-DMA is taken out, all profits should be protected at higher levels. Shorts, however, may be avoided at overall structure on the charts remain intact.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at [email protected])

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