Not Dow, US bond yields, crude and dollar will decide D-St fate
A sell-off in Europe and overnight crash in the US market spilled over to Asian and Indian equities on Thursday, causing serious damage. Though Nifty attempted some recovery midway through the session, it managed to pare very little losses and ended the day with a deep cut of 225.45 points, or 2.16 per cent.
Nifty had thus far remained somewhat insulated from the troubles in Asian markets.
As we approach the end of the week, a few factors are going to play pivotal role in determining the behaviour of the Indian market on Friday as well as on the subsequent days.
Though Nifty breached its immediate lowest support of 10,198 as it formed the days low at 10,138, it managed to crawl back inside the 10,180-10,230 area, which is now expected to act as a key support area.
Also, it is important to note is that with Thursdays decline, the Nifty has again turned oversold on the daily charts.
The RSI on the daily chart stood at 26.5319 and it now trades in the oversold zone. On the candles, a small gap has occurred. However, it is insignificant in the present structure of the charts, especially when the charts are oversold.
US bond yields came off in Wednesdays session. A drop in Brent crude prices and easing of US bond yields would be more important for Dalal Street than US stocks behaviour. If these two factors remain under control and the US Dollar Index takes a breather, we will again see Nifty attempt a bounceback.
However, if negative global macroeconomic factors weigh in again, Nifty is definitely going to show resilience and relatively outperform its peers.
We recommend staying away from creating any major exposure to the market. Shorts should be completely avoided, and any volatile and shaky moves should be utilised to make select purchases in the resilient sectors.
STOCKS TO WATCH: Long positions were seen being added in stocks of NCC, Ashok Leyland, Yes Bank, ONGC, BPCL, DHFL, ZEE, MCX, Petronet, Godrej Consumer Products, Manappuram Finance, Indigo, MRPL, Engineers India and Pidilite Industries.
(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org)