Trade setup: Market intent looks bullish, but Nifty has stiff hurdles
In Wednesdays session, Nifty made a half-hearted attempt to move past the 10,850 mark, which has been posing critical resistance to the index. In a session that remained largely rangebound and capped on the upside, the 50-pack came off from the high point of the day and settled with minor gains of 13.85 points, or 0.13 per cent.
We expect a quiet start to Thursdays session, but just like the previous session, the 10,850 level and Niftys behaviour vis-à-vis this level needs to be watched. Nifty will have to move past this level in a convincing manner for any meaningful upward move to occur.
If it faces resistance at higher levels just like it happened in the previous session, it is likely to be pushed into some more consolidation.
The 10,890 and 10,945 levels will be immediate resistance for Nifty50 on Thursday, while supports will come in lower at 10,810 and 10,760 levels.
The Relative Strength Index or RSI on the daily chart stood at 63.0384 and it has reached its highest value in last 14 days, which is a bullish signal. It does not show any divergence from price. The daily MACD remains bullish even as it trades above the signal line. Apart from the black body that occurred on the candles, no significant formations were seen.
Going by pattern analysis, Nifty is making attempts to move past the pattern resistance that exists in form of falling trend line that emerges from 11,170 and subsequently joins the falling tops.
F&O data and lead indicators exhibit strong undercurrent and buoyant intent of the market. There are chances that though we might see some corrective swings given the current structure of the markets, but eventually Nifty is likely to move past the 10,850 mark, which has been posing important pattern resistance to the market.
We are also likely to see some volatility in trade and the session is likely to remain rangebound with limited downsides and underlying buoyant intent.
One should continue to guard profits at higher levels, but selective purchases may be made.
(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org)